Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Incubus Clubwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infinity Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Incubus Club
Marsoften banned
mini-` · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Benny · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
mini-` · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Benny · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Nuages · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Jupiter · 2 games
Pangolier
mini-` · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Nuages · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
132 picks · 298 bans
Mars
131 picks · 242 bans
Earth Spirit
117 picks · 97 bans
Void Spirit
112 picks · 167 bans
Phoenix
102 picks · 110 bans
Keeper of the Light
84 picks · 155 bans
Nyx Assassin
84 picks · 295 bans
Rubick
83 picks · 41 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Incubus Club
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% Incubus Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:20
Infinity Esports 49%Incubus Club 51%
The model gave 51% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Incubus Club in 29:22.
Game 2prediction correct14:39
Infinity Esports 49%Incubus Club 51%
The model gave 51% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Incubus Club in 33:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteIncubus Club · 51%
Series resultIncubus Club 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2