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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
496 Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

496 Gaming

Brewmaster
Brewmaster
Red · 4 games
75%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
NARMAN · 4 games
100%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Bombi · 3 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
NARMAN · 2 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Bombi · 2 games
100%
Tiny
Tiny
NARMAN · 2 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bombi · 1 game
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Red · 1 game
100%

BOOM Esports

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Mikoto · 1 game
0%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Khezcute · 1 game
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Hyde · 1 game
0%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Hyde · 1 game
0%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Fbz · 1 game
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Fbz · 1 game
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 1 game
0%
Warlock
Warlock
Khezcute · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
128 picks · 236 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
126 picks · 291 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
113 picks · 94 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
106 picks · 162 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
101 picks · 104 bans
53%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
82 picks · 287 bans
59%
Rubick
Rubick
81 picks · 38 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
79 picks · 153 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 40%
Hero pool strength63% 496 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% 496 Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:15
496 Gaming 62%BOOM Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 42:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingRed
50% · 23 games50% · 6 games
ViperMikoto
Viper
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNARMAN
51% · 48 games39% · 31 game
MarsFbz
Mars
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernBombi
little data61% · 23 games
Keeper of the LightKhezcute
Keeper of the Light
53% · 11 games
TuskHyde
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed16:31
496 Gaming 62%BOOM Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 33:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerRed
42% · 8 games47% · 7 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNARMAN
51% · 15 games63% · 4 games
VenomancerFbz
Venomancer
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernBombi
little data59% · 9 games
PangolierHyde
Pangolier
29% · 3 games
Crystal MaidenKhezcute
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction missed23:34
496 Gaming 60%BOOM Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 43:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderRed
63% · 8 games38% · 4 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerBombi
little datalittle data
Sand KingFbz
Sand King
Elder Titan
Elder TitanNARMAN
33% · 5 games54% · 9 games
PangolierHyde
Pangolier
little data
Crystal MaidenKhezcute
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favorite496 Gaming · 68%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3