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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
B8 Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.

B8 Esports

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Duster · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
illusion · 4 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 3 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
RdO · 3 games
67%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
RdO · 3 games
33%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
RdO · 2 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Dendi · 2 games
0%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
5up · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
128 picks · 236 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
126 picks · 291 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
113 picks · 94 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
106 picks · 162 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
101 picks · 104 bans
53%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
82 picks · 287 bans
59%
Rubick
Rubick
81 picks · 38 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
79 picks · 153 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:29
PuckChamp 65%B8 Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 37:30.
Game 2prediction missed26:12
PuckChamp 65%B8 Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 29:42.
Game 3prediction missed27:28
PuckChamp 65%B8 Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 43:05.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 65%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3