Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Unknownloss 1:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unknown
Earth Spirit
Wij · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
Yadomi · 2 games
Marsoften banned
drakeel · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Robo-Z · 2 games
Axe
drakeel · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
Robo-Z · 1 game
Clockwerk
Yadomi · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Yadomi · 1 game
Thunder Awaken
Death Prophetoften banned
Leostyle · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
Mnz · 1 game
Jakiro
Mjz · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Frank · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
MoOz · 1 game
Shadow Shaman
MoOz · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
Mnz · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
124 picks · 233 bans
Puck
123 picks · 282 bans
Earth Spirit
110 picks · 90 bans
Void Spirit
103 picks · 158 bans
Phoenix
99 picks · 101 bans
Nyx Assassin
79 picks · 279 bans
Rubick
79 picks · 37 bans
Keeper of the Light
77 picks · 150 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% Team Unknown
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Team Unknown
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:15
Team Unknown 58%Thunder Awaken 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 40:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingBerna
JuggernautMnz
Outworld DestroyerRobo-Z
TimbersawFrank
Venomancerdrakeel
Void SpiritLeostyle
EarthshakerWij
WindrangerMoOz
GrimstrokeYadomi
EnchantressMjz
Game 2prediction missed25:30
Team Unknown 61%Thunder Awaken 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 37:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingBerna
Phantom LancerMnz
ViperRobo-Z
Nature's ProphetLeostyle
Tidehunterdrakeel
TimbersawFrank
PuckYadomi
EarthshakerMoOz
Nyx AssassinWij
OracleMjz
Game 3prediction missed20:33
Team Unknown 60%Thunder Awaken 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 34:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverBerna
Wraith KingMnz
Void SpiritRobo-Z
PangolierLeostyle
Marsdrakeel
Keeper of the LightMoOz
Earth SpiritWij
PhoenixMjz
Witch DoctorYadomi
SlardarFrank
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unknown · 69%
Series resultThunder Awaken 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3