Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hippomaniacsloss 0:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
No Bounty Hunterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hippomaniacs
No games played over 6 months.
No Bounty Hunter
Rubicksignature
ntakii · 6 games
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
ntakii · 3 games
Bloodseeker
BliNcc · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
Flash · 3 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
kAAN · 3 games
Earth Spirit
dEsire · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Flash · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
124 picks · 233 bans
Puck
123 picks · 282 bans
Earth Spirit
110 picks · 90 bans
Void Spirit
103 picks · 158 bans
Phoenix
99 picks · 101 bans
Nyx Assassin
79 picks · 279 bans
Rubick
79 picks · 37 bans
Keeper of the Light
77 picks · 150 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 62%
Hero pool strength59% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% No Bounty Hunter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:33
Hippomaniacs 27%No Bounty Hunter 73%
The model gave 73% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 19:31.
Game 2prediction correct26:42
Hippomaniacs 27%No Bounty Hunter 73%
The model gave 73% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 36:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Bounty Hunter · 73%
Series resultNo Bounty Hunter 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2