Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Empireloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hellbear Smashers
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 8 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ace · 5 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Ace · 5 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Gilgir · 4 games
Oracle
tOfu · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Stormstormer · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
tOfu · 3 games
Earth Spirit
Gilgir · 3 games
Team Empire
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 6 games
Clockwerk
sayuw · 3 games
Chen
EcNart · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Smiling Knight · 2 games
Medusaoften banned
Smiling Knight · 2 games
Tusk
sayuw · 2 games
Viperoften banned
Petushara · 2 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
123 picks · 232 bans
Puck
123 picks · 280 bans
Earth Spirit
109 picks · 90 bans
Void Spirit
103 picks · 157 bans
Phoenix
97 picks · 101 bans
Nyx Assassin
79 picks · 277 bans
Rubick
79 picks · 37 bans
Keeper of the Light
77 picks · 148 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:15
Hellbear Smashers 54%Team Empire 46%
The model gave 54% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 26:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerStormstormer
LycanSmiling Knight
PangolierMISERY
MarsPetushara
Ember SpiritAce
Phoenixsayuw
MiranatOfu
Elder TitanEcNart
UndyingGilgir
Game 2prediction missed46:29
Hellbear Smashers 48%Team Empire 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 42:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverAce
MedusaSmiling Knight
LinaStormstormer
BloodseekerPetushara
Dragon KnightMISERY
Phoenixsayuw
Earth SpiritGilgir
TuskEcNart
GrimstroketOfu
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 51%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2