Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Vice Esportsloss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TNC Predatorwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vice Esports
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 2 games
Slardaroften banned
Enryu · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Enryu · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Bob · 2 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
Palos · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Enryu · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Bob · 1 game
TNC Predator
Invokeroften banned
Armel · 1 game
Iooften banned
Tims · 1 game
Mirana
Tims · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Gabbi · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Febby · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Gabbi · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
kpii · 1 game
Slarkoften banned
Armel · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
120 picks · 270 bans
Mars
116 picks · 230 bans
Earth Spirit
107 picks · 85 bans
Void Spirit
98 picks · 154 bans
Phoenix
94 picks · 98 bans
Rubick
79 picks · 37 bans
Nyx Assassin
75 picks · 271 bans
Keeper of the Light
74 picks · 141 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength59% Vice Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Vice Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:40
Vice Esports 57%TNC Predator 43%
The model gave 57% on Vice Esports — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 36:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RikiPalos
LycanGabbi
Nature's ProphetEnryu
Void SpiritArmel
Storm SpiritBob
Marskpii
57% · 3 games
TuskTims
48% · 13 games
OracleFebby
Game 2prediction missed16:41
Vice Esports 53%TNC Predator 47%
The model gave 53% on Vice Esports — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 30:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautPalos
UrsaGabbi
MarsEnryu
Queen of PainArmel
KunkkaBob
Lycankpii
57% · 13 games
Nyx AssassinTims
little data
DisruptorFebby
Model check result
Model favoriteVice Esports · 61%
Series resultTNC Predator 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2