Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Jiang Huloss 1:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The Cutwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Jiang Hu
Mirana
txhyoo1 · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
txhyoo1 · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
P1 · 1 game
Tiny
P1 · 1 game
Void Spiritoften banned
P1 · 1 game
The Cut
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TingleK1ng · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 2 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
TingleK1ng · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
TingleK1ng · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
120 picks · 268 bans
Mars
116 picks · 229 bans
Earth Spirit
106 picks · 85 bans
Void Spirit
98 picks · 154 bans
Phoenix
93 picks · 98 bans
Rubick
79 picks · 37 bans
Keeper of the Light
73 picks · 141 bans
Nyx Assassin
72 picks · 271 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 67%
Hero pool strength65% The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% The Cut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Cut · 69%
Series resultThe Cut 1:2
Series predictioncorrect