Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 2 games
Earth Spirit
Saksa · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Topson · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ceb · 1 game
Omniknightoften banned
Topson · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
MidOne · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
n0tail · 1 game
Rikioften banned
MidOne · 1 game
Tundra Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
120 picks · 265 bans
Mars
116 picks · 227 bans
Earth Spirit
105 picks · 85 bans
Void Spirit
97 picks · 154 bans
Phoenix
93 picks · 98 bans
Rubick
79 picks · 37 bans
Keeper of the Light
72 picks · 137 bans
Nyx Assassin
71 picks · 268 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:27
OG 63%Tundra Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 36:35.
Game 2prediction missed23:37
OG 63%Tundra Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on OG — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 44:41.
Game 3prediction correct32:20
OG 63%Tundra Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 32:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 63%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3