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Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hippomaniacswin 2:1
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hippomaniacs

No games played over 6 months.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Ainkrad · 6 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
tatakae · 3 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Ainkrad · 3 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
Lodine · 3 games
67%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 3 games
33%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Lodine · 2 games
50%
Oracle
Oracle
Lodine · 2 games
0%
Riki
Rikioften banned
tatakae · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
119 picks · 259 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
113 picks · 224 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
103 picks · 84 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
97 picks · 150 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
93 picks · 96 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
78 picks · 36 bans
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
70 picks · 137 bans
55%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
70 picks · 262 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed47:32
Hippomaniacs 30%Nemiga Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Hippomaniacs in 43:33.
Game 2prediction correct7:29
Hippomaniacs 30%Nemiga Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 24:25.
Game 3prediction missed29:14
Hippomaniacs 30%Nemiga Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Hippomaniacs in 24:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 70%
Series resultHippomaniacs 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3