Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Imperial Pro Gamingloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
XXactJlepbIwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Imperial Pro Gaming
Earth Spirit
Muka · 8 games
Clockwerksignature
Muka · 6 games
Leshracsignature
Askold · 6 games
Chen
antoha · 5 games
Elder Titan
antoha · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
SuperNova · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Askold · 4 games
Dark Seeroften banned
SuperNova · 3 games
XactJlepbI
Timbersawoften banned
Funn1k · 5 games
Elder Titan
nofear · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Funn1k · 4 games
Pangolier
Funn1k · 4 games
Shadow Shaman
KingR · 4 games
Undyingoften banned
nofear · 4 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
lightless · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
nofear · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
117 picks · 259 bans
Mars
112 picks · 223 bans
Earth Spirit
102 picks · 84 bans
Void Spirit
96 picks · 150 bans
Phoenix
93 picks · 96 bans
Rubick
76 picks · 36 bans
Keeper of the Light
70 picks · 135 bans
Nyx Assassin
70 picks · 260 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% Imperial Pro Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% XactJlepbI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:45
Imperial Pro Gaming 49%XactJlepbI 51%
The model gave 51% on XactJlepbI — the game was taken by XactJlepbI in 30:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckAskold
Dragon KnightMagicaL
MarsSuperNova
Troll Warlordlightless
Shadow ShamanMuka
Void SpiritFunn1k
Crystal Maidenantoha
RubickKingR
55% · 10 games
Brewmasternofear
Game 2prediction missed14:35
Imperial Pro Gaming 50%XactJlepbI 50%
The model gave 50% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by XactJlepbI in 30:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckAskold
LycanMagicaL
Outworld DestroyerSuperNova
Troll Warlordlightless
Earth SpiritMuka
Sand KingFunn1k
Elder Titanantoha
RubickKingR
49% · 10 games
Brewmasternofear
Model check result
Model favoriteXactJlepbI · 51%
Series resultXactJlepbI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2