Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Phoenix Gamingwin 2:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Dynastyloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Phoenix Gaming
Mirana
pLAnet · 5 games
Elder Titan
zzq · 4 games
Centaur Warrunner
Molasses · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
shiro · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Molasses · 2 games
Brewmaster
zzq · 1 game
Clockwerk
zzq · 1 game
Dark Willow
pLAnet · 1 game
Dynasty
Mirana
Hy · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
114 picks · 254 bans
Mars
106 picks · 221 bans
Earth Spirit
99 picks · 83 bans
Void Spirit
94 picks · 148 bans
Phoenix
89 picks · 92 bans
Rubick
75 picks · 35 bans
Nyx Assassin
70 picks · 253 bans
Keeper of the Light
69 picks · 135 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% Phoenix Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Dynasty
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:16
Phoenix Gaming 48%Dynasty 52%
The model gave 52% on Dynasty — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 26:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slarkshiro
Keeper of the LightHy
Void SpiritMercury
MarsMolasses
PangolierpLAnet
Elder Titanzzq
Game 2prediction correct23:38
Phoenix Gaming 45%Dynasty 55%
The model gave 55% on Dynasty — the game was taken by Dynasty in 40:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocoptershiro
PhoenixHy
PuckMercury
MarsMolasses
Dark WillowpLAnet
Iozzq
Game 3prediction missed30:11
Phoenix Gaming 47%Dynasty 53%
The model gave 53% on Dynasty — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 24:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocoptershiro
TuskHy
Queen of PainMercury
BeastmasterMolasses
PangolierpLAnet
Iozzq
Model check result
Model favoriteDynasty · 51%
Series resultPhoenix Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3