Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
0-900loss 0:1series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Hokoriwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
0-900
Witch Doctor
Jericho · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Greedy · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Greedy · 1 game
Earth Spirit
sl4d1n- · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
sl4d1n- · 1 game
Underlordoften banned
Greedy · 1 game
Windrangeroften banned
sl4d1n- · 1 game
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
114 picks · 251 bans
Mars
104 picks · 220 bans
Earth Spirit
99 picks · 78 bans
Void Spirit
93 picks · 145 bans
Phoenix
89 picks · 90 bans
Rubick
74 picks · 35 bans
Nyx Assassin
70 picks · 249 bans
Keeper of the Light
68 picks · 134 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 42%
Hero pool strength57% 0-900
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:13
0-900 37%Hokori 63%
The model gave 63% on Hokori — the game was taken by 0-900 in 35:58.
Game 2prediction correct18:33
0-900 37%Hokori 63%
The model gave 63% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 20:54.
Game 3prediction missed44:32
0-900 37%Hokori 63%
The model gave 63% on Hokori — the game was taken by 0-900 in 47:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 63%
Series resultHokori 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3