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Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Respectloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hellbear Smashers

Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 8 games
63%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Gilgir · 4 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ace · 4 games
50%
Oracle
Oracle
tOfu · 4 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Stormstormer · 3 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Gilgir · 3 games
33%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
tOfu · 3 games
100%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Ace · 3 games
33%

Zero Respect

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
112 picks · 248 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
102 picks · 216 bans
49%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
98 picks · 74 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
91 picks · 143 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
84 picks · 89 bans
57%
Rubick
Rubick
73 picks · 35 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
69 picks · 243 bans
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
67 picks · 130 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 33%
Hero pool strength54% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:24
Hellbear Smashers 54%Zero Respect 46%
The model gave 54% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 31:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingAce
little data53% · 7 games
ClockwerkDavai
Clockwerk
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightStormstormer
little data
Enigma
EnigmaMISERY
little data
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanGilgir
43% · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidentOfu
50% · 4 games
Game 2prediction correct31:9
Hellbear Smashers 57%Zero Respect 43%
The model gave 57% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 26:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverAce
little data38% · 4 games
SnapfireDavai
Snapfire
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
little data
Monkey King
Monkey KingMISERY
little data
Naga Siren
Naga SirenGilgir
little data
Phoenix
PhoenixtOfu
63% · 4 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 63%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2