Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
No Bounty Hunterwin 2:1series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PuckChamploss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Bounty Hunter
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 4 games
Rubick
Shad · 4 games
Undyingoften banned
Flash · 3 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
kAAN · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
ntakii · 2 games
Earth Spirit
dEsire · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
BliNcc · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
dEsire · 2 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
111 picks · 244 bans
Mars
101 picks · 211 bans
Earth Spirit
96 picks · 73 bans
Void Spirit
88 picks · 142 bans
Phoenix
82 picks · 85 bans
Rubick
70 picks · 35 bans
Nyx Assassin
67 picks · 240 bans
Keeper of the Light
66 picks · 125 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 73%
Hero pool strength58% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:46
No Bounty Hunter 33%PuckChamp 67%
The model gave 67% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 41:04.
Game 2prediction missed38:25
No Bounty Hunter 33%PuckChamp 67%
The model gave 67% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 38:08.
Game 3prediction missed42:31
No Bounty Hunter 33%PuckChamp 67%
The model gave 67% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 46:29.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 67%
Series resultNo Bounty Hunter 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3