Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Cignal Ultrawin 2:0series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HOYOloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cignal Ultra
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Abat · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Jamesy · 3 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Jamesy · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
Abat · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 2 games
HOYO
Puckoften banned
Fearless · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Jhocam · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Fearless · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
boombell · 3 games
Axe
Forev · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jhocam · 2 games
Lone Druidoften banned
Meracle · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
111 picks · 243 bans
Mars
101 picks · 211 bans
Earth Spirit
96 picks · 72 bans
Void Spirit
88 picks · 142 bans
Phoenix
82 picks · 85 bans
Rubick
70 picks · 35 bans
Nyx Assassin
67 picks · 238 bans
Keeper of the Light
66 picks · 124 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% HOYO
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total69% HOYO
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:13
Cignal Ultra 44%HOYO 56%
The model gave 56% on HOYO — the game was taken by Cignal Ultra in 38:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinAbat
MorphlingMeracle
DoomJamesy
BristlebackFearless
little data
PangolierForev
little data
Crystal MaidenJhocam
little data
Ogre Magiboombell
Game 2prediction missed27:16
Cignal Ultra 43%HOYO 57%
The model gave 57% on HOYO — the game was taken by Cignal Ultra in 33:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinAbat
RikiMeracle
MagnusJamesy
UnderlordFearless
little data
PangolierForev
little data
Outworld DestroyerJhocam
43% · 3 games
Oracleboombell
Model check result
Model favoriteHOYO · 69%
Series resultCignal Ultra 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2