Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Sparking Arrow Gamingwin 2:0series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dynastyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sparking Arrow Gaming
Batrideroften banned
Son GoKu · 2 games
Elder Titan
XCJ · 2 games
Linaoften banned
Dstones · 2 games
Tusk
September · 2 games
Brewmaster
Son GoKu · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Dstones · 1 game
Earth Spirit
September · 1 game
Grimstroke
XCJ · 1 game
Dynasty
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
111 picks · 239 bans
Mars
101 picks · 209 bans
Earth Spirit
95 picks · 72 bans
Void Spirit
87 picks · 139 bans
Phoenix
81 picks · 84 bans
Rubick
70 picks · 35 bans
Nyx Assassin
67 picks · 235 bans
Wraith King
66 picks · 69 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Dynasty
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Dynasty
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:10
Sparking Arrow Gaming 45%Dynasty 55%
The model gave 55% on Dynasty — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 29:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetSon GoKu
MiranaHy
ZeusDstones
TuskSeptember
LionXCJ
Game 2prediction missed32:11
Sparking Arrow Gaming 47%Dynasty 53%
The model gave 53% on Dynasty — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 30:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetSon GoKu
MiranaHy
Ember SpiritDstones
Earth SpiritSeptember
Elder TitanXCJ
Model check result
Model favoriteDynasty · 65%
Series resultSparking Arrow Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2