FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction1R1000 reasonsloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1000 reasons
Void Spirit
islA · 3 games
Warlock
Nagato · 3 games
Dark Seeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 2 games
Disruptor
Nagato · 2 games
Kunkka
MTD · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
islA · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
HULIGANI
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 38 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 37 games
Chensignature
RESPECT · 35 games
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 33 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 32 games
Tusk
slimeyao · 30 games
Snapfire
RESPECT · 29 games
Warlock
RESPECT · 29 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
552 picks · 843 bans
Tusk
517 picks · 371 bans
Dragon Knight
479 picks · 643 bans
Centaur Warrunner
459 picks · 585 bans
Shadow Demon
394 picks · 768 bans
Gyrocopter
358 picks · 590 bans
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 551 bans
Mars
343 picks · 484 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 64%
Hero pool strength63% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:45
1000 reasons 35%HULIGANI 65%
The model gave 65% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 55:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawMinD_ContRoL
Gyrocopterv1olent-
TinyMTD
Puckxn丶e
Spirit BreakerislA
EnigmaBb3px
DazzleNagato
Treant ProtectorRESPECT
46% · 55 games
Skywrath Mageslimeyao
Game 2prediction correct29:34
1000 reasons 33%HULIGANI 67%
The model gave 67% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 43:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritMTD
Shadow Fiendv1olent-
MarsMinD_ContRoL
Storm Spiritxn丶e
SnapfireislA
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
JakiroNagato
Skywrath Mageslimeyao
little data
LargoRESPECT
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 77%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2