Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
5ManMidasloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
111 picks · 239 bans
Mars
101 picks · 209 bans
Earth Spirit
95 picks · 72 bans
Void Spirit
87 picks · 139 bans
Phoenix
81 picks · 84 bans
Rubick
70 picks · 35 bans
Nyx Assassin
67 picks · 235 bans
Wraith King
66 picks · 69 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Quincy Crew
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% 5ManMidas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favorite5ManMidas · 56%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:0
Series predictionmissed