Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
simply TOOBASEDwin 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team DogChamploss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Team DogChamp
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
lukiluki · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Lone Druidoften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
yarintheslayer · 1 game
Oracle
Bloody Nine · 1 game
Rubick
Bloody Nine · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
104 picks · 228 bans
Mars
98 picks · 199 bans
Earth Spirit
91 picks · 72 bans
Void Spirit
80 picks · 135 bans
Phoenix
73 picks · 80 bans
Rubick
64 picks · 32 bans
Undying
63 picks · 84 bans
Nyx Assassin
62 picks · 223 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% simply TOOBASED
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% simply TOOBASED
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:36
simply TOOBASED 60%Team DogChamp 40%
The model gave 60% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 31:13.
Game 2prediction missed39:17
simply TOOBASED 60%Team DogChamp 40%
The model gave 60% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 28:13.
Model check result
Model favoritesimply TOOBASED · 60%
Series resultsimply TOOBASED 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2