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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 2 games
100%
Lone Druid
Lone Druid
qojqva · 2 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 2 games
100%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 1 game
100%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Taiga · 1 game
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Boxi · 1 game
100%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Boxi · 1 game
100%

Nigma Galaxy

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 2 games
100%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 2 games
50%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Miracle- · 2 games
100%
Alchemist
Alchemist
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
w33 · 1 game
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
w33 · 1 game
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
KuroKy · 1 game
100%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
101 picks · 226 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
96 picks · 198 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
90 picks · 69 bans
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
79 picks · 133 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
71 picks · 79 bans
59%
Undying
Undying
63 picks · 84 bans
58%
Rubick
Rubick
62 picks · 32 bans
52%
Wraith King
Wraith King
62 picks · 63 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:20
Team Liquid 49%Nigma Galaxy 51%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 30:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackmiCKe
little datalittle data
BloodseekerMiracle-
Bloodseeker
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightqojqva
63% · 4 games47% · 16 games
Puckw33
Puck
Mirana
MiranaBoxi
50% · 16 gameslittle data
AxeMinD_ContRoL
Axe
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightiNSaNiA
54% · 21 game40% · 12 games
Void SpiritKuroKy
Void Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingTaiga
57% · 3 games50% · 16 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct9:35
Team Liquid 47%Nigma Galaxy 53%
The model gave 53% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 29:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsamiCKe
40% · 6 games38% · 4 games
MedusaMiracle-
Medusa
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightqojqva
63% · 4 games53% · 31 game
Puckw33
Puck
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderBoxi
42% · 8 gameslittle data
BloodseekerMinD_ContRoL
Bloodseeker
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritTaiga
50% · 29 games62% · 21 game
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
23% · 9 gameslittle data
ClockwerkKuroKy
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct33:29
Team Liquid 49%Nigma Galaxy 51%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 44:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerqojqva
57% · 3 games38% · 4 games
Phantom LancerMiracle-
Phantom Lancer
Zeus
ZeusmiCKe
little datalittle data
Death Prophetw33
Death Prophet
Mars
MarsBoxi
55% · 20 games50% · 4 games
BloodseekerMinD_ContRoL
Bloodseeker
Rubick
RubickiNSaNiA
48% · 16 games39% · 11 games
Elder TitanGH
Elder Titan
Tusk
TuskTaiga
20% · 6 games60% · 26 games
Nyx AssassinKuroKy
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 50%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3