Jiang Hu vs Felt — prediction DPC2S—СА2Д 1 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3

result vs prediction

Jiang Huloss 1:2

series probability

50%50%

probability at match start · final 1:2

Feltwin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Jiang Hu

No games played over 6 months.

Felt

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Puck

101 picks · 223 bans

54%

Mars

96 picks · 197 bans

50%

Earth Spirit

90 picks · 69 bans

55%

Void Spirit

77 picks · 132 bans

57%

Phoenix

71 picks · 79 bans

59%

Undying

63 picks · 81 bans

58%

Rubick

62 picks · 32 bans

52%

Wraith King

61 picks · 62 bans

55%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% Jiang Hu

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total50% Felt

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed22:18

Jiang Hu 51%Felt 49%

The model gave 51% on Jiang Hu — the game was taken by Felt in 45:48.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo