Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Gorillaz-Prideloss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Incubus Clubwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gorillaz-Pride
Grimstroke
Cara · 2 games
Centaur Warrunner
Benjaz · 1 game
Earth Spirit
d1smar · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
TaO · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
d1smar · 1 game
Puckoften banned
TaO · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
Benjaz · 1 game
Incubus Club
Marsoften banned
mini-` · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Benny · 3 games
Gyrocopter
Benny · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Nuages · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Jupiter · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
mini-` · 2 games
Puckoften banned
mini-` · 2 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Jupiter · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
100 picks · 219 bans
Mars
95 picks · 194 bans
Earth Spirit
87 picks · 68 bans
Void Spirit
76 picks · 130 bans
Phoenix
69 picks · 77 bans
Rubick
61 picks · 32 bans
Undying
61 picks · 80 bans
Wraith King
61 picks · 61 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 47%
Hero pool strength58% Gorillaz-Pride
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Gorillaz-Pride
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:35
Gorillaz-Pride 52%Incubus Club 48%
The model gave 52% on Gorillaz-Pride — the game was taken by Incubus Club in 45:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PugnaTaO
Monkey KingBenny
ViperBenjaz
Linamini-`
Nature's ProphetCara
VenomancerJupiter
Earth Spiritd1smar
PhoenixNuages
Game 2prediction missed15:28
Gorillaz-Pride 53%Incubus Club 47%
The model gave 53% on Gorillaz-Pride — the game was taken by Incubus Club in 31:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritTaO
AlchemistBenny
BrewmasterBenjaz
Batridermini-`
Keeper of the Lightd1smar
UnderlordJupiter
GrimstrokeCara
UndyingNuages
Model check result
Model favoriteGorillaz-Pride · 55%
Series resultIncubus Club 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2