Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs predictionBburjuiloss 0:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
burjui
Disruptor
Atoufix · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
Max · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
Max · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Symmetrical · 1 game
Oracle
Atoufix · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Symmetrical · 1 game
Puckoften banned
KiLLoManceR · 1 game
Rubick
KiLLoManceR · 1 game
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 3 games
Tusk
Lodine · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 3 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
tatakae · 2 games
Oracle
Lodine · 2 games
Rikioften banned
tatakae · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
TheChosenOne · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
100 picks · 217 bans
Mars
93 picks · 194 bans
Earth Spirit
86 picks · 68 bans
Void Spirit
76 picks · 130 bans
Phoenix
69 picks · 75 bans
Rubick
61 picks · 32 bans
Undying
61 picks · 80 bans
Wraith King
59 picks · 61 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:29
burjui 46%Nemiga Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 23:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingMax
Anti-Magetatakae
Shadow ShamanKiLLoManceR
ViperTheChosenOne
GrimstrokeAtoufix
Witch DoctorLodine
52% · 29 games
MarsAinkrad
Game 2prediction missed22:36
burjui 50%Nemiga Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on burjui — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 25:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingMax
Naga Sirentatakae
Keeper of the LightAtoufix
SilencerTheChosenOne
Earth SpiritKiLLoManceR
MarsAinkrad
57% · 3 games
JakiroLodine
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 56%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2