Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hippomaniacsloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bramewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hippomaniacs
No games played over 6 months.
Brame
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 4 games
Enigmaoften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
SsaSpartan · 2 games
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
Focus · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
W1sh- · 1 game
Elder Titan
SsaSpartan · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
100 picks · 216 bans
Mars
93 picks · 193 bans
Earth Spirit
86 picks · 67 bans
Void Spirit
74 picks · 130 bans
Phoenix
68 picks · 74 bans
Rubick
61 picks · 32 bans
Undying
61 picks · 80 bans
Wraith King
59 picks · 61 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% Hippomaniacs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:44
Hippomaniacs 38%Brame 62%
The model gave 62% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 23:38.
Game 2prediction correct32:41
Hippomaniacs 38%Brame 62%
The model gave 62% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 39:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 62%
Series resultBrame 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2