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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
496 Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Mirana
Mirana
Skem · 4 games
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Jaunuel · 3 games
100%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
PlayHard · 3 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Skem · 2 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 2 games
100%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Yopaj · 1 game
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Skem · 1 game
100%

496 Gaming

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
NARMAN · 4 games
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
Red · 3 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Bombi · 2 games
100%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Bombi · 2 games
100%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bombi · 1 game
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Red · 1 game
100%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Red · 1 game
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
NARMAN · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
96 picks · 214 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
89 picks · 192 bans
49%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
86 picks · 64 bans
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
73 picks · 129 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
65 picks · 71 bans
58%
Rubick
Rubick
60 picks · 32 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
60 picks · 79 bans
56%
Wraith King
Wraith King
58 picks · 60 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)82% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% 496 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:50
Neon Esports 58%496 Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 56:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordNatsumi
52% · 9 games52% · 19 games
MarsRed
Mars
Grimstroke
GrimstrokePlayHard
43% · 11 games43% · 16 games
PuckBombi
Puck
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainYopaj
63% · 4 games56% · 5 games
ClockwerkNARMAN
Clockwerk
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSkem
little data
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinJaunuel
53% · 16 games
Game 2prediction correct42:16
Neon Esports 59%496 Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 28:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordNatsumi
43% · 3 games46% · 7 games
TimbersawRed
Timbersaw
Puck
PuckYopaj
49% · 12 games43% · 3 games
TinyNARMAN
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierPlayHard
38% · 4 games64% · 17 games
Nyx AssassinBombi
Nyx Assassin
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSkem
37% · 8 games
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerJaunuel
little data
Game 3prediction correct55:17
Neon Esports 58%496 Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 24:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNatsumi
little data50% · 4 games
BrewmasterRed
Brewmaster
Mars
MarsPlayHard
59% · 9 games29% · 16 games
TuskNARMAN
Tusk
Batrider
BatriderYopaj
70% · 6 gameslittle data
Winter WyvernBombi
Winter Wyvern
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSkem
little data
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinJaunuel
78% · 5 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 65%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3