TNC Predator vs Execration — prediction DPC2S—Ю1Д 1 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3

result vs prediction

TNC Predatorloss 0:2

series probability

40%60%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Execrationwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

No games played over 6 months.

Execration

Marsoften banned

Rupido · 2 games

100%

Vengeful Spiritoften banned

Rupido · 2 games

Witch Doctor

RR · 2 games

50%

Wraith Kingoften banned

Yowe · 2 games

50%

Bloodseekeroften banned

Rupido · 1 game

100%

Dark Seeroften banned

Rupido · 1 game

100%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Ken · 1 game

100%

Faceless Voidoften banned

Yowe · 1 game

100%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Puck

94 picks · 212 bans

53%

Mars

88 picks · 191 bans

49%

Earth Spirit

86 picks · 63 bans

57%

Void Spirit

72 picks · 128 bans

57%

Phoenix

63 picks · 71 bans

58%

Rubick

60 picks · 31 bans

52%

Undying

60 picks · 79 bans

56%

Wraith King

58 picks · 59 bans

56%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%

Hero pool strength55% Execration

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total60% Execration

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct19:43

TNC Predator 45%Execration 55%

The model gave 55% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 39:25.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo