Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
NoTechiesloss 0:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Live to Winwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoTechies
Bounty Hunter
Zayac · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Solo · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Zayac · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ergon · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Malik · 2 games
Weaveroften banned
Crystallize · 2 games
Witch Doctor
Solo · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Crystallize · 1 game
Live to Win
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
90 picks · 205 bans
Mars
85 picks · 182 bans
Earth Spirit
78 picks · 63 bans
Void Spirit
68 picks · 128 bans
Phoenix
59 picks · 70 bans
Rubick
59 picks · 31 bans
Undying
57 picks · 77 bans
Wraith King
56 picks · 57 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength62% NoTechies
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% NoTechies
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:31
NoTechies 60%Live to Win 40%
The model gave 60% on NoTechies — the game was taken by Live to Win in 29:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarsErgon
UrsaKami
TimbersawMalik
Void Spiritfn
WeaverCrystallize
BloodseekerAfterLife
Bounty HunterZayac
Earth SpiritImmersion
Witch DoctorSolo
Keeper of the LightSoNNeikO
Game 2prediction missed11:25
NoTechies 58%Live to Win 42%
The model gave 58% on NoTechies — the game was taken by Live to Win in 25:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenCrystallize
Wraith KingKami
MarsErgon
Void Spiritfn
PugnaMalik
Legion CommanderAfterLife
PuckSolo
Earth SpiritImmersion
Bounty HunterZayac
Keeper of the LightSoNNeikO
Model check result
Model favoriteNoTechies · 66%
Series resultLive to Win 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2