0-900 vs Inverse — prediction DPC2S—ЮА2Д 1 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3

result vs prediction

0-900loss 0:1

series probability

50%50%

probability at match start · final 0:1

Inversewin 1:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

0-900

No games played over 6 months.

Inverse

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Puck

90 picks · 202 bans

53%

Mars

85 picks · 180 bans

49%

Earth Spirit

77 picks · 63 bans

57%

Void Spirit

68 picks · 125 bans

56%

Rubick

59 picks · 31 bans

52%

Phoenix

58 picks · 70 bans

56%

Undying

56 picks · 77 bans

58%

Wraith King

55 picks · 56 bans

54%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% 0-900

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total50% 0-900

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed21:34

0-900 54%Inverse 46%

The model gave 54% on 0-900 — the game was taken by Inverse in 33:48.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo