Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Level UP
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
85 picks · 202 bans
Mars
84 picks · 175 bans
Earth Spirit
75 picks · 61 bans
Void Spirit
67 picks · 123 bans
Rubick
57 picks · 31 bans
Phoenix
56 picks · 69 bans
Undying
56 picks · 77 bans
Wraith King
53 picks · 55 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:9
PuckChamp 80%Level UP 20%
The model gave 80% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Level UP in 20:41.
Game 2prediction missed3:32
PuckChamp 80%Level UP 20%
The model gave 80% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Level UP in 17:53.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 80%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2