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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
XactJlepbIloss 1:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
B8 Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

XactJlepbI

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
KingR · 4 games
75%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
nofear · 4 games
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
nofear · 3 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Funn1k · 3 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Funn1k · 3 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MagicaL · 3 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MagicaL · 2 games
100%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
lightless · 2 games
100%

B8 Esports

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Duster · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 3 games
33%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
RdO · 3 games
33%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
RdO · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
5up · 2 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
5up · 2 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Duster · 2 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Dendi · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
85 picks · 199 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
83 picks · 174 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
75 picks · 61 bans
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
66 picks · 122 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
56 picks · 68 bans
55%
Undying
Undying
56 picks · 77 bans
58%
Rubick
Rubick
55 picks · 30 bans
49%
Wraith King
Wraith King
52 picks · 55 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 43%
Hero pool strength59% XactJlepbI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% XactJlepbI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:11
XactJlepbI 61%B8 Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on XactJlepbI — the game was taken by XactJlepbI in 55:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Viper
ViperMagicaL
little data51% · 10 games
TerrorbladeRdO
Terrorblade
Timbersaw
TimbersawFunn1k
50% · 4 games50% · 4 games
Death ProphetDendi
Death Prophet
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerlightless
57% · 3 games38% · 4 games
Keeper of the LightDuster
Keeper of the Light
Mirana
MiranaKingR
60% · 7 gameslittle data
Dark Willowillusion
Dark Willow
Elder Titan
Elder Titannofear
38% · 4 games
Game 2prediction missed38:44
XactJlepbI 61%B8 Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on XactJlepbI — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 57:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenlightless
little data46% · 14 games
TerrorbladeRdO
Terrorblade
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMagicaL
58% · 26 games44% · 18 games
MarsDendi
Mars
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeFunn1k
43% · 6 games41% · 21 game
Rubickillusion
Rubick
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinKingR
56% · 24 games57% · 3 games
EnchantressDuster
Enchantress
Disruptor
Disruptornofear
little data
Game 3prediction missed24:32
XactJlepbI 61%B8 Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on XactJlepbI — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 55:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kinglightless
60% · 14 games40% · 6 games
TerrorbladeRdO
Terrorblade
Timbersaw
TimbersawFunn1k
little data64% · 6 games
Storm SpiritDendi
Storm Spirit
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMagicaL
60% · 6 games39% · 9 games
Rubickillusion
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKingR
little data33% · 5 games
Elder TitanDuster
Elder Titan
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightnofear
43% · 6 games
Model check result
Model favoriteXactJlepbI · 68%
Series resultB8 Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3