Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO7
result vs prediction
Eternitywin 2:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
5ManMidasloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Eternity
No games played over 6 months.
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
83 picks · 194 bans
Mars
82 picks · 169 bans
Earth Spirit
72 picks · 59 bans
Void Spirit
63 picks · 117 bans
Rubick
54 picks · 29 bans
Undying
54 picks · 75 bans
Phoenix
51 picks · 68 bans
Monkey King
50 picks · 124 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Eternity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Eternity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:24
Eternity 57%5ManMidas 43%
The model gave 57% on Eternity — the game was taken by 5ManMidas in 38:07.
Game 2prediction correct41:28
Eternity 57%5ManMidas 43%
The model gave 57% on Eternity — the game was taken by Eternity in 51:52.
Game 3prediction correct39:31
Eternity 57%5ManMidas 43%
The model gave 57% on Eternity — the game was taken by Eternity in 51:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternity · 57%
Series resultEternity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3