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Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Imperial Pro Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 3 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
Lodine · 3 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Ainkrad · 2 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
TheChosenOne · 2 games
100%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 2 games
50%
Axe
Axe
TheChosenOne · 1 game
0%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
tatakae · 1 game
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Lodine · 1 game
0%

Imperial Pro Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Muka · 6 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Askold · 5 games
80%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Muka · 4 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
antoha · 4 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
SuperNova · 3 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 3 games
67%
Chen
Chen
antoha · 2 games
100%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
SuperNova · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
80 picks · 164 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
80 picks · 188 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
68 picks · 58 bans
58%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
63 picks · 115 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
54 picks · 29 bans
48%
Undying
Undying
52 picks · 73 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
51 picks · 68 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
50 picks · 117 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% Imperial Pro Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed49:18
Nemiga Gaming 48%Imperial Pro Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 34:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirentatakae
little data50% · 6 games
Nature's ProphetSuperNova
Nature's Prophet
Mars
MarsAinkrad
32% · 16 gameslittle data
MorphlingAskold
Morphling
Enigma
EnigmaTheChosenOne
little data79% · 10 games
Earth SpiritMuka
Earth Spirit
Disruptor
DisruptorLodine
little datalittle data
Ioantoha
Io
Game 2prediction correct13:24
Nemiga Gaming 50%Imperial Pro Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Imperial Pro Gaming in 23:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Riki
Rikitatakae
71% · 3 games78% · 5 games
InvokerAskold
Invoker
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainAinkrad
little data80% · 6 games
BeastmasterSuperNova
Beastmaster
Night Stalker
Night StalkerTheChosenOne
little data38% · 4 games
MiranaMuka
Mirana
Oracle
OracleLodine
33% · 19 games48% · 7 games
Batriderantoha
Batrider
Game 3prediction correct14:34
Nemiga Gaming 49%Imperial Pro Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Imperial Pro Gaming in 31:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursatatakae
little data63% · 4 games
BatriderAskold
Batrider
Pangolier
PangolierAinkrad
50% · 4 gameslittle data
Death ProphetSuperNova
Death Prophet
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderTheChosenOne
little data41% · 7 games
TuskMuka
Tusk
Oracle
OracleLodine
44% · 12 games67% · 5 games
Shadow Demonantoha
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 53%
Series resultImperial Pro Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3