Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Creepwavewin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hippomaniacsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Creepwave
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Alexxo · 4 games
Lich
Fishman · 3 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Malr1ne · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Malr1ne · 1 game
Jakiro
Fishman · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Alexxo · 1 game
Hippomaniacs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
79 picks · 186 bans
Mars
78 picks · 163 bans
Earth Spirit
68 picks · 58 bans
Void Spirit
61 picks · 114 bans
Rubick
53 picks · 29 bans
Undying
52 picks · 73 bans
Phoenix
50 picks · 67 bans
Monkey King
48 picks · 115 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 38%
Hero pool strength60% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:16
Creepwave 76%Hippomaniacs 24%
The model gave 76% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 29:19.
Game 2prediction correct50:22
Creepwave 76%Hippomaniacs 24%
The model gave 76% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 28:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 76%
Series resultCreepwave 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2