Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs predictionXXactJlepbIloss 1:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Spider Pigzswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
XactJlepbI
Shadow Shaman
KingR · 4 games
Undyingoften banned
nofear · 4 games
Elder Titan
nofear · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Funn1k · 3 games
Pangolier
Funn1k · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
MagicaL · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
MagicaL · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
lightless · 2 games
Spider Pigzs
Linaoften banned
No!ob · 4 games
Brewmaster
Mitch · 3 games
Clockwerk
dnz · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Mitch · 3 games
Rubick
dnz · 3 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
ThuG · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 2 games
Jakiro
LeBronDota · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
78 picks · 160 bans
Puck
77 picks · 185 bans
Earth Spirit
66 picks · 57 bans
Void Spirit
59 picks · 113 bans
Rubick
52 picks · 29 bans
Undying
51 picks · 73 bans
Phoenix
49 picks · 67 bans
Monkey King
48 picks · 114 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 44%
Hero pool strength64% XactJlepbI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% XactJlepbI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteXactJlepbI · 66%
Series resultSpider Pigzs 1:2
Series predictionmissed