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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamwin 2:1
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Imperial Pro Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winstrike Team

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 3 games
100%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
yamich · 2 games
0%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Panto · 2 games
0%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
re1bl · 2 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
chshrct · 2 games
50%
Oracle
Oracle
Panto · 2 games
0%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Panto · 2 games
100%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 2 games
0%

Imperial Pro Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Muka · 4 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Askold · 4 games
100%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Muka · 3 games
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
antoha · 3 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 3 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
SuperNova · 2 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
SuperNova · 2 games
100%
Chen
Chen
antoha · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
77 picks · 157 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
74 picks · 183 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
64 picks · 54 bans
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
57 picks · 112 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
52 picks · 29 bans
48%
Undying
Undying
51 picks · 70 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
48 picks · 111 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
47 picks · 65 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 63%
Hero pool strength63% Imperial Pro Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Imperial Pro Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:35
Winstrike Team 42%Imperial Pro Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Imperial Pro Gaming in 43:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladedyrachyo
56% · 8 games50% · 4 games
UnderlordSuperNova
Underlord
Puck
Puckre1bl
33% · 8 games57% · 12 games
Void SpiritAskold
Void Spirit
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerchshrct
little datalittle data
Chenantoha
Chen
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorPanto
little data50% · 4 games
ClockwerkMuka
Clockwerk
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinyamich
50% · 4 games
Game 2prediction missed33:20
Winstrike Team 38%Imperial Pro Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 33:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinre1bl
little data56% · 5 games
Nature's ProphetSuperNova
Nature's Prophet
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerdyrachyo
little data53% · 13 games
RikiAskold
Riki
Mars
Marschshrct
48% · 17 gameslittle data
ClockwerkMuka
Clockwerk
Dark Willow
Dark Willowyamich
little data43% · 3 games
Elder Titanantoha
Elder Titan
Puck
PuckPanto
50% · 4 games
Game 3prediction missed33:21
Winstrike Team 39%Imperial Pro Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 37:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kingdyrachyo
45% · 7 gameslittle data
LeshracAskold
Leshrac
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritre1bl
25% · 4 games38% · 4 games
BeastmasterSuperNova
Beastmaster
Tidehunter
Tidehunterchshrct
little data61% · 17 games
Earth SpiritMuka
Earth Spirit
Phoenix
Phoenixyamich
49% · 10 gameslittle data
Ioantoha
Io
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPanto
little data
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial Pro Gaming · 65%
Series resultWinstrike Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3