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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
496 Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vice Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

496 Gaming

Brewmaster
Brewmaster
Red · 3 games
100%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
NARMAN · 3 games
100%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bombi · 1 game
100%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Red · 1 game
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Bombi · 1 game
100%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Bombi · 1 game
100%
Tiny
Tiny
NARMAN · 1 game
100%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Bombi · 1 game
100%

Vice Esports

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 2 games
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 2 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Enryu · 2 games
100%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Enryu · 2 games
50%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
Palos · 1 game
100%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Enryu · 1 game
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Bob · 1 game
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Palos · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
77 picks · 157 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
74 picks · 183 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
64 picks · 54 bans
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
57 picks · 112 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
52 picks · 29 bans
48%
Undying
Undying
51 picks · 70 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
48 picks · 111 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
47 picks · 65 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength58% 496 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% 496 Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:14
496 Gaming 56%Vice Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 29:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetRed
little data22% · 5 games
PuckBob
Puck
Phoenix
PhoenixBombi
68% · 11 games40% · 6 games
JuggernautPalos
Juggernaut
Clockwerk
ClockwerkNARMAN
little datalittle data
VenomancerEnryu
Venomancer
Game 2prediction correct59:24
496 Gaming 54%Vice Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 36:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderRed
little datalittle data
IoPalos
Io
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNARMAN
50% · 6 games50% · 6 games
Void SpiritBob
Void Spirit
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernBombi
little datalittle data
Night StalkerEnryu
Night Stalker
Model check result
Model favorite496 Gaming · 55%
Series result496 Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2