?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
ZeroTwoloss 1:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Cignal Ultrawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ZeroTwo

Mars
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 4 games
75%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
CHYuan · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
inYourdreaM · 2 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
CHYuan · 2 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 2 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Poloson · 2 games
0%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 2 games
0%
Lina
Linaoften banned
inYourdreaM · 2 games
100%

Cignal Ultra

Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Abat · 3 games
100%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Jamesy · 3 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemist
Abat · 2 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 2 games
0%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
75 picks · 156 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
74 picks · 180 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
64 picks · 54 bans
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
57 picks · 110 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
51 picks · 28 bans
47%
Undying
Undying
49 picks · 70 bans
57%
Monkey King
Monkey King
48 picks · 111 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
47 picks · 65 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 27%
Hero pool strength50% Cignal Ultra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% ZeroTwo
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct53:26
ZeroTwo 53%Cignal Ultra 47%
The model gave 53% on ZeroTwo — the game was taken by ZeroTwo in 44:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Riki
RikiDreamocel
50% · 8 games78% · 5 games
Wraith KingAbat
Wraith King
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainCHYuan
57% · 3 games43% · 31 game
MarsJamesy
Mars
Rubick
RubickinYourdreaM
46% · 12 games
Clockwerk
Clockwerkxiaoyu154
little data
Undying
UndyingPoloson
59% · 13 games
Game 2prediction missed24:42
ZeroTwo 57%Cignal Ultra 43%
The model gave 57% on ZeroTwo — the game was taken by Cignal Ultra in 43:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingDreamocel
little data38% · 4 games
LeshracJamesy
Leshrac
Kunkka
KunkkaCHYuan
little datalittle data
Anti-MageAbat
Anti-Mage
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyerxiaoyu154
little data
Clockwerk
ClockwerkinYourdreaM
little data
Undying
UndyingPoloson
63% · 4 games
Game 3prediction missed18:30
ZeroTwo 51%Cignal Ultra 49%
The model gave 51% on ZeroTwo — the game was taken by Cignal Ultra in 35:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Riki
RikiDreamocel
43% · 3 games53% · 7 games
Phantom AssassinAbat
Phantom Assassin
Death Prophet
Death ProphetCHYuan
little datalittle data
Shadow FiendJamesy
Shadow Fiend
Mars
Marsxiaoyu154
50% · 4 games
Dark Willow
Dark WillowinYourdreaM
little data
Oracle
OraclePoloson
little data
Model check result
Model favoriteZeroTwo · 58%
Series resultCignal Ultra 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3