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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 0:2
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
343 · 4 games
25%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ghost · 4 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 3 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
343 · 3 games
33%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Ghost · 3 games
100%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
AlaCrity · 2 games
100%
Rubick
Rubick
343 · 2 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 2 games
50%

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 4 games
50%
Riki
Rikioften banned
db- · 4 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Lym- · 3 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
db- · 3 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
woMy · 3 games
33%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
woMy · 2 games
0%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
db- · 2 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
db- · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
75 picks · 156 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
73 picks · 179 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
63 picks · 54 bans
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
56 picks · 110 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
50 picks · 28 bans
48%
Undying
Undying
49 picks · 70 bans
57%
Monkey King
Monkey King
48 picks · 110 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
47 picks · 65 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 21%
Hero pool strength60% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:33
Nigma Galaxy SEA 64%Army Geniuses 36%
The model gave 64% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 28:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Riki
RikiGhost
little data50% · 4 games
MorphlingMamangDaya
Morphling
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAlaCrity
50% · 4 gameslittle data
Bristlebackdb-
Bristleback
Rubick
Rubick343
56% · 5 gameslittle data
UnderlordwoMy
Underlord
44% · 5 games
MiranaLym-
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed37:32
Nigma Galaxy SEA 62%Army Geniuses 38%
The model gave 62% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 42:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkGhost
little data57% · 3 games
Troll WarlordMamangDaya
Troll Warlord
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAlaCrity
40% · 11 games58% · 11 games
Puckdb-
Puck
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi343
36% · 9 gameslittle data
AbaddonwoMy
Abaddon
71% · 6 games
Earth SpiritLym-
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 72%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2