Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Electronic Boysloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
No games played over 6 months.
Electronic Boys
Jakiro
albinozebra · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
Speeed · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Giant · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Speeed · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
Giant · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Giant · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
albinozebra · 1 game
Weaveroften banned
Speeed · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
73 picks · 156 bans
Puck
72 picks · 177 bans
Earth Spirit
62 picks · 54 bans
Void Spirit
55 picks · 108 bans
Rubick
49 picks · 28 bans
Undying
48 picks · 70 bans
Monkey King
47 picks · 109 bans
Phoenix
46 picks · 65 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Electronic Boys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% The Cut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:8
The Cut 60%Electronic Boys 40%
The model gave 60% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 26:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingScourge McDuck
Monkey KingSpeeed
Nature's ProphetTingleK1ng
Outworld DestroyerGiant
Ember SpiritLil_Nick
Grimstrokealbinozebra
Game 2prediction correct34:18
The Cut 57%Electronic Boys 43%
The model gave 57% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 32:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingScourge McDuck
JuggernautSpeeed
Void SpiritLil_Nick
MarsGiant
Legion CommanderTingleK1ng
Crystal Maidenalbinozebra
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Cut · 61%
Series resultThe Cut 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2