Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 1:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:0
EgoBoysloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
EgoBoys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
73 picks · 155 bans
Puck
71 picks · 174 bans
Earth Spirit
61 picks · 52 bans
Void Spirit
55 picks · 107 bans
Rubick
48 picks · 28 bans
Undying
47 picks · 70 bans
Monkey King
46 picks · 107 bans
Phoenix
46 picks · 64 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% EgoBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:40
beastcoast 40%EgoBoys 60%
The model gave 60% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by beastcoast in 41:20.
Game 2prediction correct22:50
beastcoast 40%EgoBoys 60%
The model gave 60% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by EgoBoys in 31:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteEgoBoys · 60%
Series resultbeastcoast 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2