Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 0:2series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Hellbear Smashers
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ace · 3 games
Oracle
tOfu · 3 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Ace · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Stormstormer · 2 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Gilgir · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Ace · 2 games
Winter Wyvern
tOfu · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
72 picks · 155 bans
Puck
68 picks · 172 bans
Earth Spirit
59 picks · 52 bans
Void Spirit
53 picks · 106 bans
Rubick
48 picks · 27 bans
Monkey King
46 picks · 106 bans
Undying
46 picks · 70 bans
Phoenix
45 picks · 60 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:24
PuckChamp 80%Hellbear Smashers 20%
The model gave 80% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 39:03.
Game 2prediction missed25:38
PuckChamp 80%Hellbear Smashers 20%
The model gave 80% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 39:51.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 80%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2