Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Neon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Neon Esports
Miranaoften banned
Skem · 3 games
Elder Titan
Jaunuel · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Yopaj · 1 game
Clockwerk
Skem · 1 game
Disruptor
Jaunuel · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Skem · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
71 picks · 153 bans
Puck
66 picks · 171 bans
Earth Spirit
58 picks · 52 bans
Void Spirit
52 picks · 103 bans
Rubick
48 picks · 26 bans
Monkey King
46 picks · 104 bans
Undying
46 picks · 70 bans
Phoenix
45 picks · 59 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 80%
Hero pool strength59% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:27
BOOM Esports 33%Neon Esports 67%
The model gave 67% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 33:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierFbz
Troll WarlordNatsumi
Void SpiritMikoto
Storm SpiritYopaj
Keeper of the LightHyde
Sand KingPlayHard
Bounty HunterKhezcute
MiranaSkem
little data
Spirit BreakerJaunuel
Game 2prediction correct15:44
BOOM Esports 34%Neon Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 45:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckFbz
Queen of PainYopaj
BatriderMikoto
RikiNatsumi
Earth SpiritHyde
Sand KingPlayHard
WarlockKhezcute
Keeper of the LightSkem
43% · 3 games
Elder TitanJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 80%
Series resultNeon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2