Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
T1loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
71 picks · 153 bans
Puck
64 picks · 171 bans
Earth Spirit
58 picks · 52 bans
Void Spirit
52 picks · 103 bans
Rubick
48 picks · 26 bans
Undying
46 picks · 70 bans
Monkey King
45 picks · 103 bans
Phoenix
44 picks · 58 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Fnatic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:34
Fnatic 50%T1 50%
The model gave 50% on Fnatic — the game was taken by T1 in 46:35.
Game 2prediction missed16:33
Fnatic 50%T1 50%
The model gave 50% on Fnatic — the game was taken by T1 in 42:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 50%
Series resultFnatic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2