Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
4 Zoomersloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
No games played over 6 months.
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
70 picks · 150 bans
Puck
62 picks · 168 bans
Earth Spirit
57 picks · 50 bans
Void Spirit
52 picks · 98 bans
Rubick
47 picks · 25 bans
Undying
46 picks · 70 bans
Monkey King
45 picks · 97 bans
Phoenix
44 picks · 58 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:40
Evil Geniuses 50%4 Zoomers 50%
The model gave 50% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 46:23.
Game 2prediction missed43:24
Evil Geniuses 50%4 Zoomers 50%
The model gave 50% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 1:01:55.
Game 3prediction missed7:26
Evil Geniuses 50%4 Zoomers 50%
The model gave 50% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 30:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 50%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3