Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Secretwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Team Secret
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
69 picks · 150 bans
Puck
62 picks · 165 bans
Earth Spirit
57 picks · 48 bans
Void Spirit
50 picks · 98 bans
Rubick
46 picks · 24 bans
Undying
46 picks · 68 bans
Monkey King
44 picks · 96 bans
Phoenix
44 picks · 58 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:5
Tundra Esports 52%Team Secret 48%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Secret in 31:14.
Game 2prediction missed37:39
Tundra Esports 52%Team Secret 48%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Secret in 1:12:56.
Game 3prediction missed19:13
Tundra Esports 52%Team Secret 48%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Secret in 38:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 52%
Series resultTeam Secret 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3