Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEwin 2:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team MagMaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EHOME
No games played over 6 months.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
67 picks · 149 bans
Puck
58 picks · 163 bans
Earth Spirit
55 picks · 46 bans
Void Spirit
48 picks · 95 bans
Undying
45 picks · 68 bans
Phoenix
44 picks · 56 bans
Rubick
44 picks · 24 bans
Monkey King
43 picks · 93 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% EHOME
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Team MagMa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:8
EHOME 34%Team MagMa 66%
The model gave 66% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by EHOME in 32:07.
Game 2prediction missed32:26
EHOME 34%Team MagMa 66%
The model gave 66% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by EHOME in 37:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam MagMa · 66%
Series resultEHOME 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2