Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
CDEC Gamingwin 2:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Xtreme Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
66 picks · 146 bans
Puck
58 picks · 158 bans
Earth Spirit
54 picks · 44 bans
Void Spirit
48 picks · 94 bans
Phoenix
44 picks · 55 bans
Rubick
44 picks · 23 bans
Undying
44 picks · 66 bans
Monkey King
43 picks · 92 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% CDEC Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:24
CDEC Gaming 63%Xtreme Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 39:46.
Game 2prediction missed34:9
CDEC Gaming 63%Xtreme Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 31:22.
Game 3prediction missed29:11
CDEC Gaming 63%Xtreme Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 40:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 63%
Series resultCDEC Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3