Spider Pigzs vs Creepwave — prediction DPC2S—Е2Д 1 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3

result vs prediction

Spider Pigzsloss 1:2

series probability

25%75%

probability at match start · final 1:2

Creepwavewin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Spider Pigzs

Clockwerk

dnz · 2 games

Kunkkaoften banned

No!ob · 2 games

Marsoften banned

Mitch · 2 games

Miranaoften banned

dnz · 2 games

50%

Monkey Kingoften banned

ThuG · 2 games

50%

Anti-Mageoften banned

ThuG · 1 game

Brewmaster

Mitch · 1 game

Chaos Knight

Mitch · 1 game

100%

Creepwave

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Mars

62 picks · 144 bans

48%

Puck

56 picks · 152 bans

47%

Earth Spirit

54 picks · 41 bans

60%

Void Spirit

47 picks · 91 bans

55%

Phoenix

43 picks · 54 bans

53%

Undying

43 picks · 64 bans

60%

Monkey King

41 picks · 87 bans

42%

Rubick

41 picks · 21 bans

51%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)33% vs 67%

Hero pool strength58% Creepwave

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total75% Creepwave

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed26:12

Spider Pigzs 36%Creepwave 64%

The model gave 64% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 34:09.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo