Moon Studio Kagura Championship · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragonloss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Crocodilewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dragon
No games played over 6 months.
Crocodile
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
61 picks · 133 bans
Puck
53 picks · 145 bans
Earth Spirit
51 picks · 41 bans
Void Spirit
47 picks · 85 bans
Phoenix
42 picks · 46 bans
Undying
41 picks · 63 bans
Monkey King
39 picks · 82 bans
Rubick
39 picks · 21 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Dragon
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Dragon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:47
Dragon 52%Crocodile 48%
The model gave 52% on Dragon — the game was taken by Crocodile in 38:34.
Game 2prediction correct17:38
Dragon 52%Crocodile 48%
The model gave 52% on Dragon — the game was taken by Dragon in 19:46.
Game 3prediction missed20:41
Dragon 52%Crocodile 48%
The model gave 52% on Dragon — the game was taken by Crocodile in 24:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon · 52%
Series resultCrocodile 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3